European Journal of Economics

Causal and Dynamic Interactions between Petrol and Food Prices in Nigeria: A Toda-Yamamoto Causality Approach and Impulse Response Analysis

Itoro P Ubi-Abai — 2025-12-30

This study explores the causal and dynamic interactions between petrol prices and food prices in Nigeria using monthly time series data from January 1995 to January 2025. Specifically, first, the study ascertained if changes in petrol prices can significantly predict food prices using the Toda-Yamamoto causality approach. Second, the study examined the dynamic response of food prices to price shocks or impulse in petrol prices using the impulse response function of the vector autoregression. It was discovered that a significant bi-directional causality relationship exists between petrol price and food prices in Nigeria. It was also discovered that increases in petrol prices lead to increases in food prices, suggesting a significant impact of petrol price shocks on food prices. The study concluded that petrol prices significantly predict food prices; and food prices respond positively to changes in petrol prices.

Tourism: The Effect of Electronic Word of Mouth and Tourist Experience on Revisit Intention

Neffi Sulkaisi — 2025-12-30

This study addresses the phenomenon of how electronic word of mouth (e-WOM) and tourist experience influence tourists’ revisit intention, a critical factor for sustainable tourism development. The research problem focuses on understanding the extent to which e-WOM and the multi-dimensional tourist experience affect tourists’ decisions to return to a destination. A quantitative research method using Structural Equation Modeling (SEM) with AMOS software was employed. The study was conducted at Sumatera Baratinvolving 300 respondents who have previously visited the site. Data were collected through structured questionnaires and analyzed to test the proposed hypotheses. The findings indicate that both e-WOM and tourist experience have a significant positive effect on revisit intention. Specifically, memorable and satisfying tourist experiences combined with positive online reviews increase tourists’ loyalty and willingness to revisit. This research provides valuable insights for destination managers to enhance digital engagement and improve experiential quality to boost sustainable tourism growth.

The Impact of Food Wastage, Access and Availability on Economic Growth: A Study of BRICS Countries

Medhansh Bahadur — 2025-12-30

This research paper investigates the impact of food wastage, access, and availability on economic growth in 10 BRICS countries—Brazil, China, Egypt, Ethiopia, India, Indonesia, Iran, Russia, South Africa, and the United Arab Emirates—a mix of Emerging Market and Developing Economies (EMDEs) and Advanced Economies (AEs). These nations face challenges related to food variables, affecting both health and economic performance. In this panel data study, the selected independent variables include food wastage (disaggregated into retail, out of home consumption, and household), food access, and food availability, with economic growth as the dependent variable. Through a random effects regression analysis, the findings reveal that total food wastage and food access have a significant positive impact on economic growth, with higher household-level food waste and increased prevalence of undernourishment correlating with higher GDP growth rates, indicating that even with rising food wastage and limited food access, economic value is being built into high-waste sectors in the short run. In contrast, food availability, as measured by average protein supply, exhibits no impact on economic growth. These findings have important implications for policymakers in BRICS countries. They address food insecurity and require inclusive growth that ensures access to nutrition while minimizing waste. Policymakers can use these insights to develop public campaigns on portion planning, composting, and food redistribution through NGOs or apps that can reduce waste without limiting consumption. To align development with sustainability, policymakers should integrate measures like green GDP and track undernourishment alongside economic indicators. This may involve strategies to strengthen local food production and social safety nets, building resilience and ensuring long-term, food-secure growth.

Do Corruptive Practices of a Country Inflate Unbalanced Carbon Dioxide Emissions? A Panel Data Analysis from Select Countries

Sarbapriya Ray — 2025-12-30

Global warming causing changes in climate has turned out to be a crucial menace to all countries owing to quick emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2) and other green house gases (GHG). So, this endeavor tries to evaluate the effect of corruption along with high level of energy consumption on carbon dioxide emissions as well as finds out the causal relationship among them using panel data of 10 emerging economies of Asia over the period 1980–2019using Estimated Generalized Least Square (EGLS) approach. The result suggests that countries with embracing of more corruptive practices along with high energy consumption are found to have causing more environmental degradation through excessive emission of carbon dioxide in the long run. The study also indicates the presence of unidirectional causalities directing from carbon dioxide emission to energy consumption. We found no short run causal connection between corruption and CO2 emission in the study.

Monetary and Fiscal Policy Coordination Under Economic Uncertainty in Brazil: A Comparative Analysis Between EPU and CCI

Bruno Ferreira Da Paixão — 2025-12-30

This article analyzes the coordination between monetary and fiscal policies under economic uncertainty in
Brazil, comparing the results obtained with two distinct measures of uncertainty: the Economic Policy
Uncertainty Index (EPU) and the Consumer Confidence Index (CCI). Using the Generalized Method of
Moments System to estimate a system of simultaneous equations with monthly data from 2003 to 2025, the
study initially replicates the original model with EPU and then replaces this variable with the CCI. The results
indicate that monetary policy acts in a countercyclical manner in both models, while fiscal policy presents
ambiguous behavior: under uncertainty it tends to be pro-cyclical, but in the absence of uncertainty it is
countercyclical. A substitution relationship between monetary and fiscal policies is observed, with a more
contractionary fiscal policy associated with a more expansionary monetary policy. Notably, the CCI
coefficients tend to be statistically more statistically significant than those of the EPU.

Unveiling the Pitfalls of Endogeneity in Forecasting: An Insight from Monte Carlo Simulation

Hifsa Mobeen — 2025-12-30

This paper investigates how endogeneity impairs the forecasting performance of cointegration-adjusted regression models. We employ a Monte Carlo simulation framework to generate data under three scenarios. In this regard, we have estimated three model variants: a correctly specified benchmark model ( M1), a model with the issue of endogeneity (M2), and a endogeneity corrected model (M3). Endogeneity is addressed using simulated instrumental variables that satisfy the relevance, exogeneity and exclusion restriction conditions. Forecast accuracy is evaluated across three models using various error metrics. The results reveal that models subject to endogeneity yield systematically poorer forecasts, while endogeneity correction through valid instruments significantly improves predictive performance of the model. The paper emphasizes that failure to address endogeneity in cointegration-adjusted regression models undermines structural validity, leading to biased forecasts and potentially flawed economic or financial decisions. Accurate model specification is thus essential for credible and policy-relevant forecasting.

A Strategic Financial Recovery: A Comprehensive Analysis of Boeing's Performance and Future Directions

Azan Bukhari — 2025-12-30

This research paper offers a case study investigating Boeing Ltd.'s financial performance and market positioning in the aerospace and defense industry from 2020 to 2023, including recovery measures in light of considerable hurdles. The paper compares selected financial ratios—liquidity, leverage, activity, and profitability—of Boeing with competitors such as Airbus and Lockheed Martin. Despite a sharp decline in liquidity ratios and a consistent rise in leverage, the company witnessed a remarkable turnaround in its profit margin and sales, indicating improved solvency by 2023. The evidence presented reveals the necessity for aligning financial and production strategies to succeed in the aerospace market.Additionally, this paper provides tactical suggestions for improving Boeing’s value in overcoming the financial crisis and enhancing corporate effectiveness. Recommendations include better debt management, capacity building in operations, and embracing new technologies. By implementing these strategies, the manufacturer can continue its development in the aviation industry, enhancing its participation within regulatory frameworks and promoting cooperation with potential partners. In summary, the case study methodology allows readers to understand Boeing’s financial challenges and predict its future performance, serving as a valuable resource for stakeholders to make informed decisions for the company’s sustainability in a competitive environment.

Simultaneous Substitution and Utility Maximization: An MRS Analysis with a Fixed Budget

Bijan Latif — 2025-12-30

This paper models consumer choice, allowing simultaneous buying and selling of two goods. Unlike standard
models, consumers endogenously determine their trading position. A fixed budget component represents
savings or borrowing. Using a Cobb-Douglas utility function, we show optimal consumption requires equating
the Marginal Rate of Substitution (MRS) with an effective price ratio, incorporating buy/sell decisions.
Deviations from this condition drive simultaneous substitution, increasing utility. The model highlights how
consumers actively reshape their consumption bundles through trade, offering a more realistic perspective than
traditional approaches.

Crisis Leadership and Economic Value Creation: An Empirical Analysis of Transformational Leadership in High-Stakes Industries

Siddharth Kakkad — 2025-12-30

This study investigates how transformational leadership traits manifest as economic value within crisis-prone, high-stakes industries, focusing on case studies of Kathy Warden (Northrop Grumman), Phebe Novakovic (General Dynamics), and Leanne Caret (Boeing Defence). Through a mixed-methods design combining longitudinal financial analysis, thematic leadership assessment, and industry benchmarking, the research demonstrates that leaders exhibiting strategic foresight, emotional regulation, and systems thinking delivered revenue growth rates 23% above industry averages and sustained profit margins exceeding 20%. The U.S. aerospace and defence sector, generating $995 billion in 2024 and contributing 1.6% to national GDP, provides a robust empirical context. Findings reveal that crisis leadership functions not merely as reactive management but as a proactive strategic asset, creating sustainable competitive advantage. The implications extend across leadership development, corporate governance, and policy formulation in volatile industries.