The Failure of Mineral-Based Development in Afghanistan

Abstract

Afghanistan's mineral endowment has not produced broad-based development. This article explains the gap through a structured qualitative review of peer-reviewed sector studies and authoritative institutional evidence, updated through mid-2026. Sources are coded against five observable constraints: governance and allocation, security and regulatory risk, infrastructure and capability, formalization and economic linkages, and distribution and welfare. Recent output growth and contract announcements show extractive activity, but coal-export volatility, weak disclosure, limited project implementation, and persistent deprivation indicate that extraction has not become a reliable development process. Comparisons with Mongolia and Chile are used as illustrative benchmarks, not causal controls. The article argues for a sequenced strategy: disclose and trace existing activity first, build regulatory and local capabilities second, and pursue large-scale projects and revenue stabilization only when oversight and project economics are credible.